event detail

$NVDA — long underreaction

Tier-A social chatter around new AI supply-chain beneficiary

TWEET_ONLY_UNVERIFIEDLONG_UNDERREACTIONTG_SENT

verdict

72 score

Current verdict: Useful early social signal, but every alert must remain labeled tweet-only until a primary or credible secondary source appears.

Trigger: Needs primary source or clean HOD reclaim

Invalidation: Source denies claim or price loses VWAP

Major risk: Tweet-only claim may be inaccurate or recycled

tape

above

price$147.92

move+2.6%

relvol2.4x

first seen09:11

evidence panel

id	type	source	time	status	exact excerpt
ev-tweet-nvda-001	TWEET	@tier_a_source	09:11	TWEET_ONLY_UNVERIFIED	$NVDA watched account says momentum is building after fresh AI supply-chain chatter.

claim ledger

claim	type	status	confidence	exact support
A watched account posted that fresh AI supply-chain chatter is circulating.cl-nvda-001	rumor	UNVERIFIED	52%	fresh AI supply-chain chatter

positive scores

audit

news quality2/5

novelty3/5

tape3/5

flow3/5

squeeze1/5

risk scores

audit

crowding-2

supply0

valuation-2

main riskTweet-only claim may be inaccurate or recycled

trade plan

TG_SENT

Entry / trigger: Needs primary source or clean HOD reclaim

Stop: Source denies claim or price loses VWAP

Target 1: watch only

Target 2: watch only

Time horizon: 1H / 1D / 3D / 10D

scenario panel

scenario	prob	path	target	confirmation	invalidation	horizon
Watch	50%	Chops until source verification appears.	n/a	Primary source or credible secondary confirmation	Contradictory source or VWAP loss	1D

telegram draft

evidence label required

$NVDA — LONG_UNDERREACTION
Evidence: TWEET_ONLY_UNVERIFIED
Event: Useful early social signal, but every alert must remain labeled tweet-only until a primary or credible secondary source appears.
Move: +2.6% | RelVol: 2.4x | VWAP: above

Entry/Trigger: Needs primary source or clean HOD reclaim
Stop/Invalidation: Source denies claim or price loses VWAP
Targets: watch only, watch only
Main risk: Tweet-only claim may be inaccurate or recycled
Dashboard: /events/evt-tweet-only

red-team

mvp 0

Strongest reason not to trade: Tweet-only claim may be inaccurate or recycled

Check whether catalyst is recycled, already priced, or contradicted.

Supply and crowding risks must remain visible in Telegram.

fundamental guardrail

mvp 0

Base card: mock / pending persistence.

Valuation risk: -2

Supply risk: 0

postmortem

mvp 0

Return 15m / 1h / EOD / 1D / 3D / 10D pending.

MFE/MAE pending.

Outcome label pending after signal lifecycle.

back to command center