event detail

$SOUN — fade short overreaction

Parabolic no-source mover dominated by low-quality social velocity

SOCIAL_VELOCITY_ONLYFADE_SHORT_OVERREACTIONDRAFT_READY

verdict

69 score

Current verdict: Move is large relative to evidence quality; fade draft requires controlled VWAP failure and defined squeeze stop.

Trigger: Breakdown below VWAP failure shelf at $11.90

Invalidation: HOD reclaim above $13.20

Major risk: Short squeeze risk is high if retail flow accelerates

tape

failed

price$12.18

move+31.2%

relvol18.7x

first seen09:32

evidence panel

id	type	source	time	status	exact excerpt
ev-market-soun-001	MARKET_SNAPSHOT	Alpaca mock	10:08	RAW	+31.2%, 18.7x relative volume, failed VWAP reclaim.

claim ledger

claim	type	status	confidence	exact support
No primary source has been identified for the move.cl-soun-001	no_source_mover	PARTIAL	68%	source search found no PR, SEC filing, or credible secondary source

positive scores

audit

news quality1/5

novelty1/5

tape2/5

flow4/5

squeeze4/5

risk scores

audit

crowding-4

supply-2

valuation-4

main riskShort squeeze risk is high if retail flow accelerates

trade plan

DRAFT_READY

Entry / trigger: Breakdown below VWAP failure shelf at $11.90

Stop: HOD reclaim above $13.20

Target 1: $10.80

Target 2: $9.60

Time horizon: 1H / 1D / 3D / 10D

scenario panel

scenario	prob	path	target	confirmation	invalidation	horizon
Controlled fade	42%	VWAP failure retraces 30-60% of gap.	$10.80 then $9.60	Lower high and failed VWAP reclaim	HOD reclaim	1D
Short squeeze against fade	22%	Breaks HOD and traps shorts.	+15% to +25%	Call buying and HOD breakout	Volume fades below VWAP	1D

telegram draft

evidence label required

$SOUN — FADE_SHORT_OVERREACTION
Evidence: SOCIAL_VELOCITY_ONLY
Event: Move is large relative to evidence quality; fade draft requires controlled VWAP failure and defined squeeze stop.
Move: +31.2% | RelVol: 18.7x | VWAP: failed

Entry/Trigger: Breakdown below VWAP failure shelf at $11.90
Stop/Invalidation: HOD reclaim above $13.20
Targets: $10.80, $9.60
Main risk: Short squeeze risk is high if retail flow accelerates
Dashboard: /events/evt-fade-short

red-team

mvp 0

Strongest reason not to trade: Short squeeze risk is high if retail flow accelerates

Check whether catalyst is recycled, already priced, or contradicted.

Supply and crowding risks must remain visible in Telegram.

fundamental guardrail

mvp 0

Base card: mock / pending persistence.

Valuation risk: -4

Supply risk: -2

postmortem

mvp 0

Return 15m / 1h / EOD / 1D / 3D / 10D pending.

MFE/MAE pending.

Outcome label pending after signal lifecycle.

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