event detail

$SMCI — fade short dilution risk

New shelf filing blocks aggressive long setups

SEC_VERIFIEDFADE_SHORT_DILUTION_RISKACTIVE

verdict

64 score

Current verdict: SEC-verified supply risk should be visible across Command Center, Event Detail, and Telegram risk alerts.

Trigger: Risk alert active until filing reviewed

Invalidation: Company clarifies no near-term issuance

Major risk: SEC filing language may not imply immediate raise

tape

below

price$46.31

move-3.8%

relvol4.1x

first seen07:18

evidence panel

id	type	source	time	status	exact excerpt
ev-sec-smci-001	SEC_FILING	SEC EDGAR	07:18	SEC_VERIFIED	Shelf registration filed; review required for supply overhang.

claim ledger

claim	type	status	confidence	exact support
Company filed a shelf registration that may create supply overhang.cl-smci-001	supply_risk	VERIFIED	91%	shelf registration filed

positive scores

audit

news quality5/5

novelty3/5

tape3/5

flow2/5

squeeze1/5

risk scores

audit

crowding-1

supply-5

valuation-2

main riskSEC filing language may not imply immediate raise

trade plan

ACTIVE

Entry / trigger: Risk alert active until filing reviewed

Stop: Company clarifies no near-term issuance

Target 1: risk management

Target 2: risk management

Time horizon: 1H / 1D / 3D / 10D

scenario panel

scenario	prob	path	target	confirmation	invalidation	horizon
Risk alert	65%	Long setups remain blocked until filing implications are reviewed.	n/a	ATM or offering language confirmed	No issuance risk after review	3D

telegram draft

evidence label required

$SMCI — FADE_SHORT_DILUTION_RISK
Evidence: SEC_VERIFIED
Event: SEC-verified supply risk should be visible across Command Center, Event Detail, and Telegram risk alerts.
Move: -3.8% | RelVol: 4.1x | VWAP: below

Entry/Trigger: Risk alert active until filing reviewed
Stop/Invalidation: Company clarifies no near-term issuance
Targets: risk management, risk management
Main risk: SEC filing language may not imply immediate raise
Dashboard: /events/evt-dilution-risk

red-team

mvp 0

Strongest reason not to trade: SEC filing language may not imply immediate raise

Check whether catalyst is recycled, already priced, or contradicted.

Supply and crowding risks must remain visible in Telegram.

fundamental guardrail

mvp 0

Base card: mock / pending persistence.

Valuation risk: -2

Supply risk: -5

postmortem

mvp 0

Return 15m / 1h / EOD / 1D / 3D / 10D pending.

MFE/MAE pending.

Outcome label pending after signal lifecycle.

back to command center